Note from Editor: Given the pace of change, the sheer uncertainty, and the lack of clear information, it’s highly likely that some of what you read below has already changed. However, we wanted to look at the many potential areas that could affect the global retreading industry. Below is an analysis of what happened and what didn’t happen, but could happen again. We caveat this here as we can’t caveat every paragraph below!
Times are Changing
In April 2025, the United States unveiled a sweeping shift in trade policy that sent shockwaves through the global tyre and automotive industries. Branded as part of a new “reciprocal tariff” strategy, the policy targeted a broad spectrum of imports—including vehicles, tyres, and key auto components—with tariffs scaled according to each exporting country’s trade surplus with the US. A baseline 10% tariff took effect on April 5, 2025, applying universally across affected goods. However, the more aggressive, country-specific tariff rates—originally scheduled to begin on May 3—were delayed until August 2025 following pushback from industry groups concerned about cost inflation and supply disruptions (not to mention the beginnings of a global stock market collapse).
Under the updated timeline, tyre imports will soon face sharply higher duties: 46% for Vietnam, 37% for Thailand, 32% for Indonesia, 26% for South Korea, 24% for Japan and Malaysia, 34% for China, and 27% for India. In contrast, free trade agreement partners such as Mexico, Canada, and Brazil remain largely exempt from additional tariffs over the 10% baseline for the whole world. The tariff escalation represents a significant financial burden for importers and increases the likelihood of increased costs being passed to consumers.
Most importantly, starting May 3, 2025 (now postponed to August 2025), nearly all new tyre imports into the US will incur tariffs of 25% or higher, replacing the baseline 10% tariff with higher, country-specific rates—a significant financial burden for importers and consumers. Raw materials for tyre production, such as Technically Specified Natural Rubber (TSNR), remain subject to the baseline 10% tariff. However, when sourced from countries facing additional tariffs—like Thailand and Indonesia, which supply most of the US’s natural rubber—the total tariff rises to 37% and 32%, respectively. This ripple effect is poised to significantly increase costs for new tyre manufacturing and domestic retreading operations.
While some suppliers have begun exploring alternative African sources—such as Côte d’Ivoire and Liberia—as a hedge against higher-cost Asian imports, supply chain transitions are far from immediate. Côte d’Ivoire, for example, currently faces a 21% tariff under the new US structure, though this figure has drawn some industry confusion given its historically modest trade surplus with the US. Liberia, by contrast, is subject only to the baseline 10% tariff. These shifts reflect the complex and sometimes opaque methodology behind the country-specific tariff calculations, which appear influenced by trade balances and broader geopolitical considerations. Regardless of the rates, suppliers looking to pivot towards African sourcing must navigate significant logistical hurdles, infrastructure gaps, and political uncertainty. Although many African rubber plantations are owned or operated by local stakeholders or European multinationals (notably SOCFIN and SIAT), China is increasingly investing in rubber cultivation and infrastructure across the continent, positioning itself as a future key player in the global rubber supply chain. The selective application of tariffs will further highlight the intricate geopolitical landscape that has shaped the tyre industry over the last 20–30 years.
According to the US government, the rationale behind these tariffs was “reciprocity”—a response to what it views as unfair trade barriers imposed by other nations, intended to level the playing field for American industries. In practice, however, tariff rates strongly correlated with the size of each country’s trade surplus with the US, prompting accusations of protectionism and concerns over potential price hikes for consumers. A global minimum tariff of 10% on affected imports took effect on April 5, 2025, while higher, country-specific tariffs for nations with significant trade surpluses were postponed by 90 days (from their initial May 3 date to August 2025). This delay provides a negotiation window, during which affected countries can advocate for reduced tariff rates with the current US administration.
David Stevens, Managing Director of the Tire Retread & Repair Information Bureau (TRIB), commented on the immediate uncertainty, explaining that tariff conditions changed within a single day during a visit to one of TRIB’s members. “It’s hard for people to make a business decision when you don’t know exactly what’s going to happen,” he remarked. By the day after we spoke with David, he was proven correct, as things had already changed, leading to the caveat at the top of this article.
Getting Ahead of the Curve
The immediate aftermath of the tariff announcement was characterised by both a flurry of activity within the import segment of the tyre industry (those importing to the US from abroad or importers in the US whose supplies come from outside the US), alongside some quieter contemplation and a ‘wait and see’ response from US domestic players in tyres and retreading alike.
A rapid response was seemingly, however, already underway. In the days and weeks before the announcement, companies were alert to the potential threat these tariffs would impose, and tyre importers reportedly accelerated shipments, engaging in a “frontloading” exercise to increase inventory before the tariffs took effect. This wasn’t exclusive to the tyre industry; in March, US container imports surged by 11%, mostly driven by companies importing from China. This import surge strained port facilities and warehouse capacity from early March onwards. Some industry spokespeople, who had called for higher initial tariffs to prevent such frontloading, watched with a sense of what they thought was inevitable. However, they, like the rest of us, probably now understand that flux and constant second-guessing are to become the new norm in the global tyre industry.
The first quarter of 2025 saw a surge in tyre imports from tariffed countries, followed by a rapid decline in orders from those regions. In contrast, imports from countries with preferential access remained stable or increased. Trade data for 2024 already reflected softening volumes, with Thailand shipping 6.6 million truck and bus tyres, a decline of 33.6% from the previous year. Vietnam’s exports dropped to 2 million, down 31.9%, and China’s fell to 1 million, marking a 40.6% decrease.
By mid-April, ports and warehouses noted changing supply routes: imports from heavily tariffed Asian sources began to decline, while imports from tariff-exempt partners, such as Mexico, remained steady or increased to fill the emerging demand gap. Major US tyre manufacturers and dealers also adjusted their sourcing plans, emphasising domestic and free-trade agreement (FTA) suppliers to alleviate the cost impacts.
The tariffs’ immediate consequence (again, now delayed) appears to be a sharp increase in the landed cost of imported new tyres. For example, a new truck tyre imported from Thailand that previously cost $200 would now incur roughly $74 in tariffs at 37%, potentially bringing its import cost to approximately $274 before distributor markup. In general, tyres from the affected countries would see prices 25% to 50% higher for US buyers due to these duties. This inflation compounds existing cost pressures, as tyre prices were already elevated due to pandemic-related supply chain issues and rising input costs. As originally stated, the tariffs would have exacerbated these trends, especially for lower-cost “budget” tyres imported cheaply. The short reprieve in the tariffs until August is likely exacerbating the ‘frontloading’ issue further, but we’ll need to wait for new data to be certain. Notably, this pause does not apply to direct imports from China. Tariffs on Chinese tyres came into effect almost immediately, reflecting the ongoing trade tensions between the two largest trading nations on earth, with both countries having imposed significant, though varied, tariffs on goods crossing their borders.
The US Retreading Industry
Retreading has historically been a barometer of economic caution and a bellwether for cost-conscious purchasing, which shifted with the prices of low-quality imports getting closer to those of quality retreads. However, we may be about to re-enter a time where retreading is the route of choice for the cost-conscious logistics operator. With the effects of the tariffs potentially meaning the cost of new imported tyres rises sharply, and sourcing strategies start being rewritten in real-time, the retreading industry may be poised for a long-awaited resurgence.
Stevens, gave a candid reflection on the sheer unpredictability of the situation. This sentiment echoes across the industry. While tariffs are technically in place, enforcement timelines and scope remain in flux. Importers are scrambling to reroute supplies through exempt countries. Manufacturers are considering shifting production. Fleets—particularly those at the smaller end of the scale—are unsure whether they will need to absorb long-term cost increases or gamble on temporary disruption.
“The instability is, in many ways, the biggest obstacle right now,” Stevens added. “It’s not just about what the tariffs are – it’s about how long they’ll last and whether they’ll be enforced consistently.”
The current situation is not entirely without precedent. Stevens pointed to the period beginning in 2015 when the US imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Chinese truck and bus tyres – at the time, the dominant source of low-cost tyre imports.
“When those tariffs went into effect, we saw a very immediate and very clear benefit to the retread sector,” said Stevens. “The ultra-low-cost Tier 4 new tyres coming from China were getting close to, and sometimes undercutting, the price of a retread. That price pressure made it difficult for smaller fleets to justify retreading – but with tariffs in place, retreads suddenly made financial sense again.”
The result was a short-lived but real resurgence for retreaders. However, the market quickly adapted. Chinese manufacturers shifted production to Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia, which picked up the slack. In the end, the tariffs on Chinese goods were not enough to sustain long-term change. Today, those same countries are being hit with the new round of duties – in some cases at even higher rates.
“This time around, it’s broader,” Stevens explained. “Thailand, Vietnam, and others now face tariffs that are even steeper than those previously applied to China. But whether that shift actually benefits the retread sector long term will depend on whether those tariffs stick – or whether we just see another round of production relocation.”
Despite these caveats, Stevens is cautiously optimistic. “If the pricing differential between retreaded and new tyres widens – and stays wide – we’ll see increased interest in retreading, especially from owner-operators and small fleets,” he said. “These are the customers who are most price sensitive in the short term and who, over the past few years, had largely shifted to low-cost import tyres.”
By contrast, large fleets, which often purchase Tier 1 tyres and have structured retreading programmes, are unlikely to change behaviour significantly. “They already know retreading gives them the lowest cost of ownership. Their tyre lifecycle strategies are mature, and tariffs don’t change their basic calculus.”
But the appeal of retreading is suddenly increasing for smaller fleets and independents, particularly those without long-term supply agreements or fixed maintenance budgets.
Importantly, Stevens believes this trend may benefit not just the big franchise retreaders but also independents. “If retreads become the logical financial choice again, smaller operators may look locally for supply. That could open the door for independents, especially those with strong customer service or regional reach.”
Stevens noted that 2024 was not an easy year for the retreading industry in the US. “Most of our members reported flat or declining sales last year,” he said. “There were exceptions, of course – a few businesses gained market share or brought in new fleet customers – but on the whole, it was a challenging year.”
He attributed this slump partly to the transactional nature of tyre purchasing throughout 2024. “At the end of the year, it was all about cost. Whoever had the lowest price was winning the business, and that often meant Tier 4 new tyres. That hurt retreaders.”
With the new tariffs, however, the dynamic is shifting. As imported new tyres become more expensive, retreaders are seeing increased inquiries from fleets looking to explore or expand retread programmes.
“It’s still early days,” Stevens cautioned. “But we’re hearing from members that conversations are picking up. Fleets are paying attention again.”
Can Global Supply Chains be Unwound?
While the tariffs could help retreaders locally in the US by making imported new tyres more expensive, they also introduce complications on the materials side. Natural rubber – a key ingredient in tread rubber and tyre casings – is mostly sourced from countries facing high tariffs, including Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
Even tyres made in the US could face indirect cost increases. Domestic factories may have to pay more for imported rubber, fabric, cord, or chemical additives affected by tariffs, potentially raising production costs. The US imports most of its natural rubber from Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Thailand, which together accounted for approximately 73% of US natural rubber imports in 2023. Under the new policy, these countries’ rubber shipments face 32% and 37% tariffs, respectively. This increases the input costs for tyre manufacturing and retreading in the US. Synthetic rubber and rubber chemicals imported abroad could incur country-specific tariffs unless producers sourced alternatives. It remains to be seen how this will manifest itself. However, major US tyre manufacturers often produce synthetic rubber in-house and might have forward contracts for natural rubber, which could soften the immediate impact. Over time, we may see increased US investment in raw material production as a strategic response to these import costs.
We asked Stevens about this impact: “Retreaders could feel some pressure from rising raw material costs,” he acknowledged while pointing out, “Retreading uses significantly less rubber than manufacturing a new tyre, so the impact may be manageable.”
There is also speculation that, depending on downstream effects, exemptions could be made for critical components like natural rubber. “There’s already talk of protecting agricultural products and food inputs,” Stevens said. “If enough industries are impacted, rubber might get excluded – but again, that’s speculation.”
Foreign Manufacturing in America? Still a Distant Prospect
A common refrain in recent political rhetoric is the goal of reshoring manufacturing to US soil. However, Stevens remains sceptical that non-US tyre manufacturers—particularly those based in Asia—will make substantial short-term investments in their production capabilities in the US.
“It’s a huge capital commitment,” he said. “Unless there are strong and consistent incentives – tax credits, infrastructure support, long-term policy stability – it’s unlikely many companies will make that move. Right now, most are just trying to weather the storm and avoid disruption.”
He added that the current administration’s history suggests a highly fluid policy environment. “Tariffs could be a negotiating tactic or the foundation of a new industrial strategy. No one really knows.”
We know that China and other nations have recently ramped up their production capabilities in Mexico, leveraging it as a strategic workaround to the high tariffs many other tire- and rubber-producing countries face to date.
Mexico still benefits from some tariff-free access to the US market under the USMCA (including tyres and rubber at the time of writing), making it an increasingly attractive hub for global manufacturers (again, this could change!). Several major players have already moved to capitalise on this advantage. Chinese tyre giant Sailun Group is building a $427 million plant in Guanajuato, while ZC Rubber is developing a major facility in Saltillo. Mesnac, a leading Chinese rubber machinery firm, is investing $20 million in a new factory in León. Established global brands like Goodyear, Michelin, Pirelli, and Bridgestone continue expanding their regional footprints.
These moves underscore a broader industry shift—using Mexico not only as a production base but also as a tariff-neutral gateway into North American markets. This begs the question of whether it is feasible to fully onshore all of America’s production capability, whether tariffs are present or not. Luckily for the big manufacturers in the US, most of their production is already local.
Retreading Outside the US
Much of the shock has focused on tyres and retreading in the US. However, the impact on the global market is another area that needs to be addressed. As things shift and the year continues to give us insight, exploring how supply chains are expanding towards markets that don’t involve the US will be pertinent. There is already chatter of broader trading blocs forming, including between China and the European Union. Still, it’s worth noting that for all the drama surrounding the recent US tariffs, protectionist measures are not new to the global retreading industry. The EU, for example, recently introduced anti-dumping duties on certain low-cost truck and bus tyre imports—particularly from China and Southeast Asia—citing market distortion and unfair pricing. The magazine’s last edition examined whether these duties would significantly benefit European retreaders. The general sentiment at the time was muted; many in the EU retreading sector expressed scepticism that the measures would deliver meaningful market shifts. By contrast, Trump’s tariff proposals appear to have a more immediate and positive effect on US retreaders, many of whom see the potential for real resurgence, particularly among smaller fleets and budget-conscious operators. The contrast in reactions underscores how policy design, enforcement, and market dynamics vary across regions.
Strong purchasing nations or regions have real challenges ahead of them as they struggle with the cost of importing to America and whether they need to relax trade barriers with other areas to counter-balance some of the instability. Could this mean, for example, Europe and Asia forging closer trading ties and more equitable approaches to trade, and what impact would this have on retreaders in both regions? It’s yet to be apparent, and we suspect we will be looking at this in more depth later in the year, but it could mean more volatility in the rest of the world as America continues to isolate.
What Comes Next?
As the dust continues to settle, one thing remains clear: the US retreading industry is better positioned today than it was a few months ago. With imported new tyre prices climbing and fleets reassessing their cost structures, the value proposition of retreads is back in focus. The retreading industry, often located in regions with strong haulage and industrial activity, could boost local economies. Retreading plants provide skilled jobs and contribute to the local tax base. Similarly, distribution warehouses, which are integral to the local supply chain, are adapting and showing signs of expansion. There’s even the possibility that technological innovation in tyre manufacturing and retreading could start to reshape the industry out of necessity. However, as Stevens points out, the story is far from over. “We’ve seen these cycles before. The tariffs are helping retreaders now, but the long-term impact will depend on enforcement, consistency, and how the global supply chain reacts.”
In the meantime, retreaders will need to remain agile, communicating their value clearly and positioning themselves as a reliable, cost-effective alternative in a market that is anything but predictable. “The chaos of the current trade environment might create opportunities,” Stevens concluded. “But it’s going to take clear thinking, strong execution, and a little bit of patience to make the most of them.”
